Tuesday, Feb 07th

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U.S.

The Straits of America

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The Straits of America NEW YORK – Macroeconomic indicators for the United States have been better than expected for the last few months. Job creation has picked up. Indicators for manufacturing and services have improved moderately. Even the housing industry has shown some signs of life. And consumption growth has been relatively resilient.

The Bankers’Capital War

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PARIS – Almost everyone nowadays agrees that banks need more capital. Christine Lagarde chose to make it her first campaign as Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. And conventional analyses of the financial crisis focus on the weak capital base of many banks, which left them with insufficient reserves to absorb the losses they incurred when asset prices fell sharply in 2007-2008.

The End of the Growth Consensus

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OB-OU795_taylor_G_20110720184535.jpg Mr. Taylor, a professor of economics at Stanford and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, is the author of "Getting Off Track: How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged and Worsened the Financial Crisis" (Hoover Press, 2009)

Global “Imbalances” and the Crisis

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tin_glencore1.jpg In the 1920s, capital began flowing from Massachusetts to North Carolina, a process that continued until after World War II as textile mills migrated to the South from New England. Beginning in the 1950s capital moved again as textile manufacturing moved to Mexico, India and Malaysia. Capital has long moved to where it can be used most productively, and by and large, that has been a good thing.

Sleepwalking through America’s Unemployment Crisis

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NEWPORT BEACH – It was relegated to the Q&A session, rather than featured prominently in the opening statement, at last week’s first-ever press conference of US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke.

A Modest Proposal for the G-20

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nuevo-de-g-20.jpg BEIJING – In March, at a meeting in Beijing organized by Columbia University’s Initiative for Policy Dialogue and China’s Central University of Finance and Economics, scholars and policymakers discussed how to reform the international monetary system. After all, even if the system did not directly cause the recent imbalances and instability in the global economy, it proved ineffective in addressing them.

The Anatomy of Slow Recovery

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snail.jpg BERKELEY – Between 1950 and 1990 – the days of old-fashioned inflation-fighting downturns engineered by the United States Federal Reserve – America’s post-recession unemployment rate would fall on average 32.4% over the course of a year from its initial value toward its natural rate. If the US unemployment rate had started to follow such a path after peaking in the second half of 2009, it would now stand at 8.3%, rather than 8.9%.

Deficit Oulook Darkens

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P1-AZ237_Spendi_D_20110126182614.jpg WASHINGTON—The federal budget deficit will reach a record of nearly $1.5 trillion in 2011 due to the weak economy, higher spending and fresh tax cuts, congressional budget analysts said, in a stark warning that will drive the growing battle over government spending and taxation.

Shorting Fiscal Consolidation

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Global-Sovereign-Debt.jpg Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University and Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC, is co-author, with George Akerlof, of Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism.

NEW HAVEN – Real long-term interest rates – that is, interest rates on inflation-protected bonds – have fallen to historic lows in much of the world. This is an economic fact of fundamental significance, for the real long-term interest rate is a direct measure of the cost of borrowing to conduct business, launch new enterprises, or expand existing ones – and its levels now fly in the face of all the talk about the need to slash government deficits.

Economist Raghuram Rajan Warns of Currency Conflict

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image-140125-galleryV9-nvui.jpg In a SPIEGEL interview, renowned Chicago-based economist Raghuram Rajan discusses the dangers of a global currency war, the risks of persistently low interest rates and the growing income and wealth inequality in the United States

Dividend Tax Cut Caught in Dilemma Over Obama's Deficit Controls

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debtclock.jpg President Barack Obama, offering a consolation prize to high-income Americans whose taxes he wants to raise next year, is proposing to scale back a scheduled tax increase on their dividends. A budget law Obama signed this year may keep the Democratic president from meeting that goal.

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