As popular unrest threatens to topple another Arab neighbor, Israel finds itself again quietly rooting for the survival of an autocratic yet predictable regime, rather than face an untested new government in its place.
Syrian President Bashar Assad's race to tamp down public unrest is stirring anxiety in Israel that is even higher than its hand-wringing over Egypt's recent regime change. Unlike Israel and Egypt, Israel and Syria have no peace agreement, and Syria, with a large arsenal of sophisticated weapons, is one of Israel's strongest enemies.
Though Israel has frequently criticized Assad for cozying up to Iran, arming Lebanon's Hezbollah movement and sheltering leaders of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, many in Israel think their country might be better off if Assad keeps the reins of power.
"You want to work with the devil you know," said Moshe Maoz, a former government advisor and Syria expert at Hebrew University's Harry S. Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace.
Several Israeli government and military officials declined to speak in depth about Assad, fearing any comments could backfire given the strong anti-Israel sentiments in the Arab world. That's what happened when some Israeli officials attempted to bolster Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak before he resigned Feb. 11.
"Officially it's better to avoid any reaction and watch the situation," said Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad, the Defense Ministry's policy director. He predicted Assad's regime would survive the unrest.
Privately, Israeli officials confirmed that although Assad is no friend, he's probably better than the immediate alternatives, which could include civil war, an Iraq-style insurgency or an Islamist takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Israel is worried about what might happen to Syria's arsenal, including Scud missiles, thousands of rockets capable of reaching all of Israel, chemical warheads, advanced surface-to-air systems and an aging air force.
After spending billions of dollars in recent years to bolster its army in a bid to catch up to Israel's military capability, Syria was reportedly pursuing a nuclear program until Israel bombed its suspected reactor facility in 2007.
[ LATimes.com ]
