Yet the bid by Palestinian authorities to gain full UN membership in the 2011 session of the General Assembly has generated controversy and concern about its effect on Middle East stability. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas says the step is necessary for the Palestinians to assert the legitimacy of their claim to territory under pressure from Israeli settlements. Israelis see the move as an effort to undermine future negotiations and isolate them internationally. Washington has vowed to veto any resolution on Palestinian statehood if it comes to the UN Security Council, because it believes it undercuts the negotiating process. A number of experts think the Palestinian campaign is likely to result in some enhanced profile at the UN, but say the most meaningful path toward Palestinian statehood lies in negotiations with Israel.
In October 2011, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) voted to recognize Palestine as a full member, causing the United States to withdraw roughly $60 million in financial support. The UNESCO membership has no formal bearing on the bid for Palestinian statehood, but the political fallout may complicate a two-state solution.
Why is Abbas seeking statehood at the UN?
Abbas says he was moved to act by the lack of progress in the peace talks and ongoing Israeli settlement-building in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which he terms illegal. The Palestinian territories should "be represented in [their] natural borders," Abbas said in a September 16 speech in Ramallah. The Palestinians seek recognition on the 1967 borders, including Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. "Palestinians believe that negotiations have run their course and they have no choice," says CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook. "This is the logical conclusion of a stalemate." Palestinians have also said the timing for the bid is right because of their success in building institutions in the West Bank, making them ready for statehood.
CFR Senior Fellow Robert Danin says some form of UN membership could improve Palestinians' position in final status talks with Israel. "They would be negotiating on behalf of a state, not a provisional body and non-state entity," he wrote in an essay on ForeignAffairs.com. "As a UN member, Palestine could resort to legal recourse at the UN Security Council, the International Court of Justice, and possibly the International Criminal Court. Moreover, attaining UN membership would arguably enhance the Palestinians' claim to the pre-1967 armistice line, since that line will have been recognized internationally."
What is the UN process for approving statehood?
Aspiring members submit applications to the UN Secretary-General, who is then required to send the application to the UN Security Council. The UN Charter says the admission of any state to membership "will be effected by a decision of the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council." The Security Council recommendation is made by a resolution subject to a veto.
The 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States lists criteria for statehood as a permanent population, a defined territory, government, and the "capacity to enter into relations with the other states." The last requirement appears to cast doubt on the statehood bid, but Security Council Report, an expert monitoring group, says past precedents do not rule out "applicants with unresolved or disputed territorial boundaries."
Abbas made the pitch for Palestinian statehood in an address to the summit-level meeting of the UN General Assembly on September 23. U.S. officials say they will veto the measure in the Council, but the timeline for deliberations and such a vote is unclear. If the Council approves the statehood resolution, it would be sent to the General Assembly, where it needs a two-thirds majority, or 129 votes, for approval.
In the event of a U.S. veto or a change in plans, the PA could submit a resolution directly to the General Assembly, which could elevate its status to non-member state observer, the same as the Vatican. A General Assembly vote would likely be delayed by several weeks while a text is negotiated to provide maximum support for the bid. There is no veto in the Assembly.
How does UNESCO membership affect the bid for statehood?
While UNESCO membership may represent a moral victory for Palestine in the court of public opinion, the new status has no material effect on the bid for UN statehood (NYT). Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad al-Malki said the membership "was the best step toward peace," but added it was "linked in no way to our request to join the United Nations." The membership will take effect when Palestine signs and ratifies the UNESCO constitution.
U.S. and Israeli officials responded to the news with displeasure. According to U.S. law, Palestine's UNESCO membership prompted a cutoff of U.S. financial support to the development agency--a contribution of 22 percent of its total budget. The law, passed in the 1990s by the U.S. Congress, bars U.S. funding to any UN body that grants full membership to Palestine before a peace agreement between Israel and Palestine is reached. Palestine plans to pursue membership in several other UN organizations (al-Jazeera), including the World Health Organization and the IAEA.
What countries support Palestinian statehood at UN?
The Palestinians enjoy the support of more than 120 of the 193 members of the UN General Assembly. Members of the UN Security Council likely to support Palestinian statehood include Russia, South Africa, China, Brazil, India, Nigeria, Lebanon, and Gabon (Bloomberg).
What countries oppose this effort?
In addition to Israel, the United States is a leading opponent of the Palestinian move at the UN. In a speech in May 2011, President Barack Obama affirmed support for a two-state solution based on 1967 borders, but U.S. officials object to a statehood bid as premature and damaging to the negotiating process.
President Obama reiterated this stance in his address to the UN General Assembly in September 2011, "One year ago, I stood at this podium and I called for an independent Palestine. I believed then, and I believe now, that the Palestinian people deserve a state of their own. But what I also said is that a genuine peace can only be realized between the Israelis and the Palestinians themselves."
Among other UN Security Council members, Colombia has indicated that it will abstain from a vote. The following members remain undecided or unclear in their intentions: Germany, France, Portugal, Britain, and Bosnia.
Are Palestinians united behind this effort?
No. The PA is the official governing body of the Palestinian people, led by the Fatah faction. But officials in the militant Hamas group, which ousted Fatah forces to take control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, resent what they see as a unilateral move by Fatah. Hamas does not recognize Israel as a legitimate state, and does not support the PA's initiative (Haaretz) since it would concede parts of "historic Palestine" and "infringe" upon the right of return for the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees. Ali Abunimah of the Palestinian Policy Network writes other main reasons for Palestinian opposition to the statehood bid (ForeignAffairs) are that it could "lead to unintended consequences" and that "there is no democratic mandate for the Palestinian Authority to act on behalf of Palestinians or to gamble with their rights and future." A recent poll of Palestinians living in the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem found most preferred continued negotiations with Israel rather than a statehood move at the UN.
However, Abbas received a boost in popularity among Palestinians (AP) following his speech at the UN, and some analysts say this may put him in a better position to negotiate with Hamas leaders on issues of reconciliation and the future of Palestine. Power-sharing negotiations between the two factions are set to begin in Cairo in early October.
How does elevated Palestinian statehood affect the Israeli-Palestinian peace process?
UN recognition of Palestine based on pre-1967 borders may further legitimize the Palestinian cause and help marshal greater support from the international community. But it could also ratchet up tensions between the two sides, despite Abbas's appeal for calm among Palestinians and his assertion that peace negotiations will continue.
Some members within the Israeli government (Haaretz) are pressing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take punitive measures against the PA (annexation of territory, travel restrictions, asset freezes, etc.) depending on the outcome of its statehood initiative. U.S. diplomats fear such actions could precipitate violence and a cessation of security cooperation between Israel and the PA. Such a scenario could lead to a collapse of the PA and throw the stewardship of the West Bank into Israeli hands.
There is also concern in Israel that statehood would empower Palestinian officials to seek recourse at the International Criminal Court (al-Jazeera). But legal scholars are uncertain about the potential for this. In theory, this would enable Palestine to push the ICC to prosecute Israel for war crimes, including the construction of Jewish settlements. In turn, Israel could ask for the prosecution of the Palestinian side over rockets fired from Gaza.
Punitive sanctions from Israel could also jeopardize its long-standing peace with Egypt (NYT), where a fragile transitional government struggles to maintain security. Tensions between the two countries have flared in recent weeks, and a deterioration of Israeli-Palestinian relations has the potential to galvanize Arab resentment across the region.
How would a UN vote affirming statehood affect life inside Palestine?
Very little, in terms of tangible changes resulting directly from the UN decision. Statehood would be a symbolic victory for the PA, but it would lack any formal recognition of sovereignty, borders, and other such considerations normally attendant with state status. Acquiring these things from Israel would require direct negotiations (AP) even if the UN Security Council endorsed statehood. Unintended consequences of UN recognition could include heightened tensions and possibly violence in the Palestinian territories. In addition, the U.S. Congress has sent strong signals that hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. aid to the Palestinian Authority, which has helped prop up institution-building and security forces, could be curtailed. Statehood could raise false expectations of tangible gains among Palestinians--a situation likely to engender public frustration.
What's at stake for the United States?
If the United States uses its veto in the Security Council, it will risk alienating the Arab and Islamic world on an issue of central political significance and at a time of great political upheaval. A veto could isolate Washington, exposing it to criticisms of hypocrisy (e.g., supporting a rebellion in Libya and Egypt, but opposing the self-determination of Palestinians) and impair its ability to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian peace and cultivate alliances with nascent Arab democracies.
What are the U.S. options?
The United States and its allies within the Security Council can try to delay the Palestinian application (Reuters) for several weeks with procedural measures. The U.S. goal would be to use the extended period to redouble its diplomatic campaign, which may include pushing Abbas to abandon the initiative in favor of some process or recognition outside the UN; to seek non-member state recognition at the UN General Assembly; or to delay the UN bid (perhaps until 2012) until negotiations with Israel can be renewed. Normally, the Security Council would take no more than thirty-five days to review a membership application, but Western diplomats say this timeline can be extended. If there is a Security Council vote, the United States can try to persuade at least six other members to vote down or abstain on the resolution. Statehood recognition requires nine votes out of fifteen at the Security Council and no vetoes. Failing this, Washington would be forced to use its veto power.
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